P&P Starters

Probability & Partners offers risk management services for banks, insurers, pension funds, asset managers, supervisors, FinTechs, and family offices.

Our clients in each sector include the very top of the Dutch financial industry. Our experience allows us to advise clients at all levels, from the executive and supervisory board to line managers in charge of a specific risk.

How we provide our services depends on the preference of the client.

Assignments include providing strategic advice, performing a risk assessment, and building models. Client work can be performed either in teams or alone. For example, a team of Probability employees may be required to work on a specific modeling project (

consulting

). However, a client may also hire an individual consultant to temporarily lead a department (

interim

), to fill a staffing void in one of the client’s teams (

loaned staff

), or to provide senior advice on a project performed by the client (

advisory

). Clients may also request us to completely take over a specific part of their function in their risk management (

managed service

).

An assignment typically lasts between 3 months and 1 year.

Risk management in the financial industry is a thorough process, so assignments lasting less than 3 months are rare. The location where work is performed depends on the preference of the client. On average you will spend one or two days per week at the client’s office. The remaining days can be spent either at Probability or at home, depending on your own preference. It may also occur that you work on multiple projects simultaneously.

Below you will find a selection of our clients.
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Risk Management

Probability and Partners is a consultancy firm specialized in offering risk management services to the financial industry. Risk taking is a central part of the business model of our clients. The goal of risk management is to ensure that risks are taken in such a way that the financial institution does not suffer excessive losses from which it eventually fails.

Our clients can be exposed to a wide range of risks. The services offered by Probability & Partners span the wide range of topics in risk management.
Read more
On a high-level, risks in the financial industry are typically classified as either a
financial risk
or
non-financial risk
. For example, a bank may suffer losses if clients are unable to repay their loan (
credit risk
) or when changes in market rates affect the value of the instruments the bank owns (
market risk
). Additionally, a bank will be in serious trouble when it has insufficient liquid assets to meet its payment requirements on a given day (
liquidity risk
). Insurers and pension funds are also exposed to changes in life expectancy which affect future payment obligations (
longevity risk
), and to changes in returns on their investment portfolio which is held to meet the promises made to policyholders (
equity risk
).
Although less prominent, non-financial risks play an equally important role for our clients. For example, a power outage may prevent the business from running (

operational risk
) and a hack could lead to the theft of sensitive information (
cyber risk
). A model with unidentified shortcomings may be used to make wrong decisions (
model risk
), while changes in legislation may affect the business model or the value of financial instruments (
legal risk
). Financial institutions may get fined when failing to prevent money laundering (
fraud risk
), or may see clients leaving due to bad press (
reputation risk
).
How a risk is dealt with depends on the type of risk and the client. Broadly one can distinguish between a
quantitative
and
qualitative
approach. In a quantitative approach, the aim is to accurately measure the exposure to a certain risk. For example, client behavior can be modeled to predict in which cases a client will exercise his right to prepay a loan ahead of schedule (

prepayment risk
), and historical price fluctuations and market prices can be used to price a complex derivative. The extent to which a client is exposed to a risk determines the level of accuracy used to quantify the risk.

The accuracy of a quantitative approach may be limited due to a lack of representative data, or because events observed in the past may not be representative of the future. A qualitative approach is therefore complemented by a quantitative approach in which risks are actively steered. Qualitative risk management can involve the identification and prioritization of risks, and the development of a hedging strategy. Other activities can involve solidifying how risk management is organized (

governance
) or formulating an independent opinion on processes and controls (
audit
).

Our approach

We believe that a diverse mix of people is required to excel in risk management.
By combining practitioners with seasoned consultants and academics, we are able to give high-quality advice.
Our practitioners have years of experience fulfilling a prominent position at a financial institution. Their background as an internal employee allows them to understand priorities, the dynamics between risk management and the business, and how risks are interconnected. They are complemented by our consultants with many years of experience with providing advice and know how to make a lasting impact from the outside. Lastly, our academics have access to the latest insights and are keen to challenge what is known. Their insights bring the quality of our advice to another level and trigger us to think beyond what was done in the past.

The result of our approach is that clients like to ask for our help with problems that are not straightforward. In other words, the solution required is not readily available in a textbook but requires knowledge of a wide range of methods and a thorough understanding of the problem context. This aligns with the character of our people. We want our people to be happy in the work they do, as we believe this will also lead to happier clients.

We are therefore selective in the assignments we accept and make sure they are sufficiently interesting and challenging.
More about us

Culture

Our company is composed of intrinsically motivated and helpful colleagues.

We are proud of our work, but we also value our family, friends, and personal interests. We therefore believe in a healthy work-life balance. While a project deadline may sometimes require an additional effort, you are always able to compensate extra hours for off-days in later periods. Nevertheless, we do not have excessive workweeks.

We also offer a lot of flexibility in contracts (e.g., part-time and leaves), allowing you to combine work with other things in life.

Our culture can be described as open.
Our philosophy is that if you want to be involved, you can be involved.
We believe that every colleague can make a significant and visible contribution to the firm. Internal company meetings are therefore open for each colleague to join, whether it discusses sales or the strategy of the company. We are also welcoming to initiatives that help to grow the business.

We also value informal contact among our colleagues. We aim to organize a social event at least every other month, and we regularly have an informal chat or play a video game throughout the month.

International

Probability & Partners is an English-speaking company;
our internal communication and documentation language are English.
Our colleagues come from diverse backgrounds, including Mexico, Aruba, China, Surinam, Spain, and South Africa.
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Working as a consultant

Working as a consultant is different from working as an internal employee at a financial institution. A comparison is presented in the figure below. Note that one is not necessarily better than the other, it all depends on your personal working- and learning preferences.

Consultant 

• Learn about a variety of risks;
• Navigate through many business cultures;
• Work on urgent problems;
• Development path and responsibilities depend on available assignments;
• Financial compensation depends on ability;
• Instant and direct feedback on performance.

Internal

• Learn a lot about one type of risk;
• Ease into one business culture;
• Work on recurring tasks;
• Development path and responsibilities depend on internal staff mobility;
• Financial development depends on CAO;
• Less direct (semi-)annual feedback.

Personal growth

Our activities in risk management are very broad. During the first part of your career, we will expose you to
different types of financial institutions and risk types
. Joining Probability & Partners will therefore allow you to find out which topics and sectors you really like in risk management.
There are
different directions
you can take to develop your career in risk. You can strive to become a specialist on a specific range of risk topics, an expert in modeling techniques, a data specialist, a project manager, or a generalist who is able to transform risk measurement into decisions. We will support you with

relevant training
in whichever direction you choose to take. There is no fixed budget to support your development, if the training is relevant and you can motivate its purpose you can do it.

Upon joining Probability & Partners we will
link you to a senior consultant
, who will help you with decisions regarding personal growth. Additionally, the accessibility of our senior- and partner staff is unique. Frequent discussions with them will excel your knowledge development and soft skills.

Working week

Working activities for Probability & Partners can be roughly divided into three activities:
client work, internal projects, and business development. 
Given the
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